First We Merge. Then We Unmerge. Money Is Lost. Money Is Created. Forget It, Jake. It’s Chinatown.

I keep going back and forth on the InBev/A-B imbroglio, not sure exactly what I think, but having done a couple of long interviews with beverage industry consultant Andy Christon of Ippolito, Christon & Company,  I find his prediction on the matter, as reported this morning by Harry Schuhmacher of Beer Business Daily, very intriguing:

If this deal happens – and it may – there is a high likelihood that in 3-5 years the enriched investment bankers will propose a ‘break-up’ of InBev/AB into smaller more focused units, in order to create shareholder value.

According to Harry, Andy notes that while A-B’s stock market cap has gone up $10 billion since all the fuss started, InBev’s has declined by $15 billion, which would drastically reduce the synergies if the two merged. In the long run, he sees the deal as a bad one and suggests that investors will force a split-up similar to what eventually happened with AOL-Time Warner.

Are we having fun yet?

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